A forecasting tool created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that hospital bed usage and deaths due to the COVID-19 outbreak will peak between April 7 and April 21 in New Jersey.
The peak date for hospital bed usage is estimated to be April 9. The state could face a shortage of 1,687 hospital beds, according to the forecasting model.
In New Jersey, the peak date for deaths is projected to be April 10. The forecasting model estimates that 104 people will die in New Jersey on that date. COVID-19 deaths in New Jersey could total 2,096 by Aug. 4, according to the forecasting tool.
Christopher Murray, the chairman of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, created the forecasting tool to estimate the dates for peak hospital bed demand and deaths due to COVID-19 in each state. The forecasting tool predicts hospital use and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next four months for each state using data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from World Health Organization websites, local and national governments, and observed COVID-19 data from select locations.
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the U.S. will exceed the current capacity of hospitals, especially for ICU care. The forecasting tool estimates that New Jersey could have a shortage of 1,687 hospital beds at the peak of the epidemic.
The forecasting tool projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic. Enforcing and maintaining social distancing measures will help mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
View detailed projections by state on the IHME website.